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An “anti-crisis radar” for European small businesses: How an early warning system could save thousands of companies from bankruptcy

Imagine driving your car without a dashboard: no speedometer, fuel gauge, or engine temperature indicator. Sounds absurd. Yet this is precisely how many small and medium-sized enterprises across Europe are “driving” their businesses: without adequate tools to understand when a crisis is approaching.

SMEs represent 99% of all companies in the European Union and employ approximately 100 million people. They are the continent’s actual economic engine, but also its most fragile link. When a small business fails, it’s not just profits that disappear; jobs are lost, skills vanish, and often a lifetime’s dream is shattered.

It is from this awareness that OITBC (Observatory and Initial Training on Business Crisis for MSMEs) was born, a project funded by the European Union’s Erasmus+ programme and coordinated by Casartigiani Arezzo in partnership with organisations from Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Bulgaria. Launched in October 2023 and now halfway through its journey, the project aims to help small businesses better identify and manage challenging situations, with a focus also on the Balkan countries seeking EU membership.

“We don’t just want to help businesses when they’re already in difficulty,” explains the research team. “Our goal is to develop tools that enable entrepreneurs to recognise the warning signs of crisis before it’s too late.”

The heart of the project is the analysis of EU Directive 2019/1023, legislation that should function as an early warning system for companies in distress. But there’s a problem: whilst Europe has created the rules, each country has implemented them differently.

The researchers have already analysed how Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Bulgaria have transposed this directive, comparing them with EU candidate countries such as Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia. The results show a highly varied landscape. Italy has developed advanced automatic indicator systems to assess corporate crisis risk, whilst Spain has focused on training and preventive consultancy. In the Balkans, the situation is even more fragmented, with regulations still being adapted to European standards.

However, the real crux emerges from the questionnaires that researchers have submitted to hundreds of small and medium-sized enterprises across Europe. Most entrepreneurs are unaware of these crisis prevention tools. It’s as if they had a burglar alarm for their home but didn’t know how to activate it.

“Many SMEs find themselves without the necessary tools to identify crisis signals in good time,” confirms the initial data collected. “It’s not just a matter of financial resources: often there’s simply a lack of awareness that these tools exist and can make a difference.”

The OITBC project is now working on creating a digital platform where entrepreneurs and consultants can find practical guides, concrete examples, and risk assessment tools. In the coming months, we will hold virtual training seminars in all participating countries. The goal is to foster a European culture focused on preventing business crises. As the team explains, “We want recognizing the signs of a crisis to become more natural and widespread among entrepreneurs.”

When a small business fails, the effects are felt far and wide: suppliers lose customers, banks must cover bad debts, workers find themselves without pay, and families lose their primary source of income. Conversely, a business that overcomes difficulties through timely intervention continues to generate value for the entire community.

“It’s not just about saving companies,” the researchers emphasise. “It’s about protecting Europe’s social and economic fabric, safeguarding millions of jobs and the families that depend on them.”

By the end of 2025, the OITBC project will have completed its activities, creating training and informational materials for European SMEs. All research results and tools developed will be made available free of charge, in various languages, and accompanied by practical examples for different economic sectors.

The challenge now is to transform this research into concrete action. Only through a coordinated approach at European level will it be possible to disseminate crisis prevention tools as a standard for small businesses across the continent. In an increasingly interconnected and fragile economy, the ability to predict and prevent crises is no longer a luxury; it’s a survival necessity.

For more information: www.oitbc.eu

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